Illegal Immigration in the United States- A Chronic Problem
Illegal immigration is a serious and ongoing problem in the United States. The three primary sources of illegal immigration are from Asia , Mexico, and Central America. This problem interests me because of the detrimental effect illegal immigration has on the U.S. economy, the way in which the U.S. combats illegal immigration versus the methods employed by other countries, and the disinterest the federal government shows in remedying the problem. The specific parts of this chronic problem that are of the most interest to me me are the economic fallout associated with illegal immigration, policy in the U.S. that reinforces someones desire to attempt to illegally immigrate to the U.S., and the security measures taken by the U.S. to halt and ultimately reverse the current trend.
Defining My Specific Interests
Economic Fallout: I am interested in quantifying how the economy, specifically the number of available jobs and federal tax revenue is affected by the presence of more illegal immigrants. Additionally, I would like to quantify the average cost to the federal, state, and municipal governments for every additional illegal immigrant that enters the U.S. These costs have many sources including, but are not limited to: Health care (namely emergency rooms), public education, use of public facilities, criminal activity and law enforcement, and any federal programs such as welfare or state/federal health care that contribute towards taking care of either the illegal immigrant or their children. The economic fallout is with respect to the entire cost of allowing an illegal immigrant into the United States, cost that must include the eventual cost if that immigrant has children, however legal they become, in the United States. In the case of children, particular attention should be paid to the percentage of children that will become productive members of society (earning potential, likelihood of becoming a criminal, etc.) compared to a legal immigrant or U.S. citizen.
Security Measures: This part of the review will examine the percentage of illegal immigrants that enter the U.S. who are caught in the act, the percentage of those that try again, where these illegal immigrants enter the country, the percentage of these illegal immigrants that are engaged in a criminal activities (other than illegally crossing the border), and the number of border control agents (and their counterparts) needed versus the number available.
Policy: This section will examine current policy enacted by the United States that either balances out or reinforces the problem of illegal immigration. The types of policy that will be taken into account include: the penalty for illegal immigration, how U.S. policy affects the calculated risk undertaken by illegal immigrants who choose illegal immigration versus the risk they face staying in their own country and policy driven incentives such as emergency room health care, the ability to find work, the potential to have a child born in the U.S. that is a U.S. citizen, the desire to rejoin family that has already illegally immigrated to the U.S. (whom the U.S. are reluctant to deport), and, in some areas, free education.
Quantifying the Problem - Hard Variables
The following is a list of potential hard variables which can be tracked to quantify the problem and what is causing it to increase.
Severity of the Problem: Tracking severity of illegal immigration can be done by using data recorded by various government agencies that detail the number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. by their country of origin and the rate at which these illegal immigrants have children who are born in the U.S. If this were graphed it would show a marked increase in illegal immigration since 1980 with the dominating source of illegal immigration being from Mexico. It would also show that for every illegal immigrant in the U.S., their are approximately two additional people born who are unauthorized but will most likely be given citizenship.
Percentage of Illegal Immigrants Caught in the Act: Self explanatory. This graph would show an increase over the past 5-10 years in the percentage of illegals caught in the act but the total percentage caught would be marginal compared to the number that successfully immigrated.
Repeat Offenders: The number of people caught attempting to enter the United States more than once. This graph would show an increase over the past 5-10 years since policy has not been enacted to fix the problem of illegal immigration itself. This graph will also examine the percentage of total immigrants that are repeat offenders with respect to the past 10-20 years.
Percentage of Offenders Prosecuted: The percentage of offenders prosecuted for illegally attempting to enter the U.S compared to the whole. I am not sure of trend, but this graph will show an abominably low prosecution rate of less than 3-4%.
Percentage of Illegal Immigrants in the U.S. Prosecuted and Deported: The percentage already in the U.S. that eventually face prosecution and deportation with respect to the whole. This may be a difficult statistic to find, but I would hypothesize that the number is on the decline given the decline in state and federal revenue to enforce immigration laws.
Number or Percentage of Illegal Immigrants Already in the U.S. Released or Skipped Bail: The number or percentage of illegal immigrants caught and identified as illegal immigrants who either skipped their court date because they were not held in custody or who were released since the crime they committed was either negligible or because their only crime was being in the U.S. illegally.
Economic Incentives for Illegal Immigration - This graph would detail the number of illegals currently employed in the U.S., the total cost of services such as health care and welfare enjoyed by the illegal population and the cost of education for children born of illegal immigrants.
Cost of Directly Fighting Illegal Immigration: Self explanatory. This graph would show a marked increase in the cost of fighting illegal immigration given the new funding provided to support it over the past 5+ years. However, this cost would still be marginal with respect to the drain on the U.S. economy.
Assessment of Cost of Enforcing Immigration Laws Versus the Cost of Allowing the Problem to Persist: This graph would document various potential trends involving the immigration problem. The trends would all track the cost of future illegal immigrants and those currently here that are arrested and released versus the potential cost of halting and reversing the problem associated with illegal immigration. This graph would not be exact but is intended to give a ball park estimate of the resulting economic fallout based on whether or not the problem is amended.
This list could go on but that's enough for now, the problem is already sufficiently complex!
Soft Variables
This is a listing of the soft variables, variables which have, for the most part, have already been detailed above and need no further elaboration. These variables are all reflected in the hard variables above.
Policy- What policy issues promote illegal immigration, which act to deter it. (temporary visas, difficulty of legal immigration, path to citizenship or lack there of, citizenship laws for the children of U.S. born illegals, etc.)
Enforcement- What enforcement has proven effective in catching illegal immigrants both in the act and after the fact.
Prosecution/Punishment- What level of prosecution and form of punishment is effective and ineffective in providing a successful deterrent against illegal immigration. What can we learn from history and other countries to succeed in selecting the right level of prosecution and punishment?
Motivating Factors Behind Illegal Immigration- Why are people coming to the U.S? What does their country of origin lack that the U.S. provides? What makes breaking the law worth the risk and how can new policy on behalf of the U.S. counter this motivation, particularly in terms of providing alternative solutions?
Connecting the Dots
All of the variables above are interrelated. While further research is required, most of the the interactions between key variables can be explained. However, unless someone really wants me to draw a crazy causal loop diagram, I'm going to avoid explaining the complex interactions, as I understand them now, until next week!
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ReplyDeleteBrandon, I just want to commend on your blog on your statement about the detrimental effect illegal immigration has on the U.S. economy. About a year ago, I took a class called “Local History” and we looked a lot on poultry in the Valley as it is widely known as one of the main poultry producers in the country. We went on multiple class tours to both poultry farms and poultry plants. What I learned was that, most of the workers who worked for these large poultry corporations are immigrants; I guess both legal and illegal. Someone could argue that illegal immigrants do better for the US economy than harm, because they work so hard on jobs that nobody else seemed willing to do due to working conditions. The poultry industry which falls under the food industry is probably one of the most critical industries in US, and if this people were not here to take on these jobs, the impact on the current economic down turn would have probably been felt even harder. I however agree that the large number of immigrants with little education probably slows the growth of the wages of native-born high schools dropouts, but the ultimate impacts on wages is difficult to quantify.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI have also taken a few classes describing the type of poultry and swine farms/plants you are referring to. There is a severe problem in our country when it comes to unemployment, that is without a doubt the truth. However, suggesting that the U.S. economy is better off by allowing illegal immigrants to perform jobs which cannot be otherwise filled is incorrect and fails to look at the overall affect employing illegal immigrants has on the economy.
ReplyDeleteEmploying illegal immigrants is a crime and could lead to stiff financial penalties and possibly even the closing of a business. Anyone who is 'forced' into employing illegal immigrants will want to keep it a secret, which means that once they break the law and begin hiring illegal immigrants they will have lots of incentive to employ as many illegal immigrants as possible. This means the company can cut costs, pay their workers below minimum wage, not enforce safe working conditions, and that money paid to the illegal workers will bypass any income taxation. Even after considering all of the above there is the problem of competition.
If one company hires illegal immigrants and is able to cut costs by doing so then another company in the same industry may be forced either out of business or into recruiting illegal immigrants themselves, just to remain competitive. Ultimately this leads to either more unemployed Americans if the company goes under OR more unemployed Americans AND more illegal immigrants in the U.S. if the company decides to cut cost and hire illegal immigrants.
I do understand the problem is systemic. Unemployment, as it stands now, can discourage people from working for less than they use to make, minimum wage MAY be set to high for some regions, and some required workplace safety laws may increase the cost of business beyond what is profitable anywhere in the U.S. These are just some of the policies already in place that would need to work in sync with any immigration reform that is instituted. In the case of these poultry farmers I would argue that special attention needs to be paid to industries that are dependent on illegal labor when any immigration reform is passed. This special attention could provide short-term direct subsidies or waivers that would allow employers to bypass some of the problematic legislation that led to the hiring of illegal immigrants in the first place.
It may be impossible for some of these companies to remain afloat even if every company within a single industry is forced into employing legal U.S. workers. However, that is the nature of success and failure, some industries will fail when cost increase. As a final note, it is inarguable that the ability to find work is a motivating factor behind illegal immigration. Most illegal immigrants are not criminals, drug runners, or terrorist, they are just people looking to sustain themselves or their families. The more jobs that exist for illegal immigrants the greater the incentive is for people to choose to illegally immigrate to the U.S., driving up the cost of border control, the loss of taxable income, lowering the education level, increasing the number of uninsured Americans, and displacing jobs legal American's now hold in the process. If you would like an example, check out what has happened over the past 15-20 years to the construction industry in the south east United States. In Georgia alone the number of illegal immigrants, according to MSNBC (fairly liberal reporting!) has grown from 35,000 in 1990 to 480,000 in 2009. Here's a good link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35546061/ns/us_news-life/t/southeast-sees-big-influx-illegal-immigrants/#.TnAHE4JTpTI
Very good post, Brandon. This is indeed a complex problem whose solutions must require some sort of systems thinking (whether system dynamics and/or other forms). You've highlighted many relevant issues. I'm glad you selected this. It is an outstanding example of a situation where a systems approach is needed.
ReplyDeleteI also applaud Jacob for his comment and you for the ongoing discussion. This is just the kind of thing I would hope to see. Lots of give and take, challenging of ideas, appeals to hard facts, etc. You both have done a great job with this.
Back to this post:
I think it's very good that you've identified several relevant variables. Both the "hard" and "soft" variables you cite are relevant. As I'm mentioned on all the other blogs, one of the most important things to do early on in a system dynamics study is to identify a small number (say 1-3 or so) "dashboard" variables that are indicators of the magnitude and severity of the problem. So...of all the variables you list, which would be those "dashboard" variables? This is an important choice, because these variables serve as the primary indicators whose behavior over time we will seek to understand with system description and modeling. If we pick variables that are only peripheral to the core problem, or that reflect a pre-supposed solution, then we will not do the kind of analysis that is needed.
What are your dashboard variables?