Problem Narrative
The problem that I would like to analyze is illegal immigration into the United States, particularly across the U.S.'s border with Mexico. Every year hundreds of thousands of people illegally immigrate to the United States, half of them from overstayed Visas. (NPR, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5485917) There are a myriad of reasons why this problem persist despite efforts to suppress it, not the least of which are various U.S. policies in place that exasperate the problem, some of which will be discussed below.
Behavior Over Time
This dynamic problem is constantly changing with respect to the many variables that influence it. The magnitude of illegal immigration can be measured by tracking the number of individuals caught entering the U.S. illegally every year. This statistic can be analyzed year by year with respect to the various incentives in place that promote illegal immigration as well as the deterrents that resist it. For example, if I want to investigate the effect various enforcement policies have had on illegal immigration it would be meaningful to analyze any statistics that track the financial and criminal risk taken by an average illegal immigrant during a given year. There a large number of statistics that could be monitored to track the financial and criminal risk taken by an average illegal immigrant, but a few are: the percentage of illegal immigrants caught versus those that made it, the average time of an illegal immigrant caught spent in detention, the percentage of illegal immigrants prosecuted for illegally crossing the border, the average amount paid by an illegal immigrant (based on their country of origin) to be smuggled or guided into the U.S., and the percentage of illegal immigrants, with respect to the whole, that perish when trying to enter the U.S. Additionally, tracking the number of returns and removals on a yearly basis, a statistic kept by the DHS, would provide a composite in lieu of some of the more specific statistics mentioned above. Returns are people deported without a court order preventing their return while removals are individuals who were ordered to be deported by the U.S. government who face steep penalties if they were caught trying to illegally reenter the U.S. Returns require no court action, can be accomplished relatively quickly, and the only punishment for having been caught is the time spent in detainment. Meanwhile, every removal requires a case by case hearing and takes a lengthy period to process. (http://www.justice.gov/oig/special/0403/index.html)
Relevance of a Systems Perspective
The complex nature of this problem makes it perfect for a systems analysis. Within the several variables there are many delays, particularly between when new policy is implemented and when the effects are felt, that make feedback loops very significant. Finally, there are multiple mental models at work that represent the mindsets of each individual group involved, including the immigrants, U.S. citizens, border patrol, politicians, and drug traffickers.
Study Objective and Questions to be Addressed
The primary purpose of this study would be to answer question: Why does illegal immigration persist across the U.S. - Mexico border and what can be done to address it. However, when I perform my research I will need to examine the scope of the problem prior to performing this analysis. I must first describe why the problem of illegal immigration is significant and a one that is even worth spending time to research. I plant to do this by researching the potential long and short term fallout (social, economic, and impact on national security) from continued illegal immigration. These projections should speak for themselves, describing both the scope of the problem and providing guidelines that aide in estimating the maximum U.S. contribution (in terms of financial and manpower assets) that would prove beneficial in the long run.
The problem that I would like to analyze is illegal immigration into the United States, particularly across the U.S.'s border with Mexico. Every year hundreds of thousands of people illegally immigrate to the United States, half of them from overstayed Visas. (NPR, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5485917) There are a myriad of reasons why this problem persist despite efforts to suppress it, not the least of which are various U.S. policies in place that exasperate the problem, some of which will be discussed below.
Behavior Over Time
This dynamic problem is constantly changing with respect to the many variables that influence it. The magnitude of illegal immigration can be measured by tracking the number of individuals caught entering the U.S. illegally every year. This statistic can be analyzed year by year with respect to the various incentives in place that promote illegal immigration as well as the deterrents that resist it. For example, if I want to investigate the effect various enforcement policies have had on illegal immigration it would be meaningful to analyze any statistics that track the financial and criminal risk taken by an average illegal immigrant during a given year. There a large number of statistics that could be monitored to track the financial and criminal risk taken by an average illegal immigrant, but a few are: the percentage of illegal immigrants caught versus those that made it, the average time of an illegal immigrant caught spent in detention, the percentage of illegal immigrants prosecuted for illegally crossing the border, the average amount paid by an illegal immigrant (based on their country of origin) to be smuggled or guided into the U.S., and the percentage of illegal immigrants, with respect to the whole, that perish when trying to enter the U.S. Additionally, tracking the number of returns and removals on a yearly basis, a statistic kept by the DHS, would provide a composite in lieu of some of the more specific statistics mentioned above. Returns are people deported without a court order preventing their return while removals are individuals who were ordered to be deported by the U.S. government who face steep penalties if they were caught trying to illegally reenter the U.S. Returns require no court action, can be accomplished relatively quickly, and the only punishment for having been caught is the time spent in detainment. Meanwhile, every removal requires a case by case hearing and takes a lengthy period to process. (http://www.justice.gov/oig/special/0403/index.html)
Relevance of a Systems Perspective
The complex nature of this problem makes it perfect for a systems analysis. Within the several variables there are many delays, particularly between when new policy is implemented and when the effects are felt, that make feedback loops very significant. Finally, there are multiple mental models at work that represent the mindsets of each individual group involved, including the immigrants, U.S. citizens, border patrol, politicians, and drug traffickers.
Study Objective and Questions to be Addressed
The primary purpose of this study would be to answer question: Why does illegal immigration persist across the U.S. - Mexico border and what can be done to address it. However, when I perform my research I will need to examine the scope of the problem prior to performing this analysis. I must first describe why the problem of illegal immigration is significant and a one that is even worth spending time to research. I plant to do this by researching the potential long and short term fallout (social, economic, and impact on national security) from continued illegal immigration. These projections should speak for themselves, describing both the scope of the problem and providing guidelines that aide in estimating the maximum U.S. contribution (in terms of financial and manpower assets) that would prove beneficial in the long run.
Statistical Analysis of the Problem
The research performed so far has been based on statistics acquired from the DHS website in the form of yearly publications. (DHS, http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/publications/yearbook.shtm) These publications record a variety of figures, such as the number of illegal immigrants returned, removed, the number involved in criminal activity, and the number of immigrants based on their country of origin. Below is a graph I have assembled based on these statistics. Between the years 1944 and 2010, the raw data this graph displays, on a yearly interval, is the: number of illegal immigrants returned and removed, and number of legal immigrants permitted entry. Additionally, this graph highlights two valuable statistics: the ratio of illegal immigrants returned with respect to the number of legal immigrants and the change in legal immigration from year to year. In both of these cases, the lines do not represent the values tracked on the left-hand y axis. The first of these statistics, the ratio of illegal immigrants returned to the number of legal immigrants permitted entry, varies between the smallest and largest ratios during the time frame presented. The smallest value is approximately 0.27 and the largest is 5.3. The second statistic, the change in legal immigrants permitted entry each year. This statistic is calculated by taking the immigrants permitted entry in year N and subtracting the number from permitted from year N-1 from it, then dividing by N-1. This value represents the fractional increase in legal immigrants in reference to the previous year. The smallest value is a decrease in the immigrants allowed of 44.6% (negative) and the largest is an increase in immigrants permitted of 182%.
There is clear correlation between the raw statistics tracked by this graph the ratio of returns and removals to legal immigrants permitted. When the number of returns increases the ratio increases the as well. In short, the more returns are used as a way of dealing with illegal immigration, the faster illegal immigration itself increases. Granted, this will require more research to investigate fully but there is a relationship there that is worth a look. The second relationship I have analyzed, the change in legal immigration, is a little less useful but it does add a dynamic worth looking at. This will require more work, but I plan to examine various periods on the graph and determine why legal immigration increased in a given period while illegal immigration did not, and vice versa.
Grounds for Formulating a Dynamic Hypothesis
The information I have presented has given me some causal relationships on which I have begun to build my dynamic hypothesis. First, illegal immigration increases in response to an increase in returns, and decreases in response to an increase in removals. This is the major causal relationship I have determined from my statistical analysis, but there are additional relationships that are worth mentioning. Given the economic status of illegal immigrants versus legal immigrants, it is a fact that immigrants illegally entering the U.S. will be a burden on the U.S. economy as well as the country’s economy from which he or she originated in, particularly those immigrants that cross the U.S.-Mexico border. The economic status of illegal immigrants is below that of legal immigrants, which coincides with an increased number of the population that is both in or nearly in poverty. (http://www.cis.org/articles/2001/mexico/poverty.html) Additionally, an increase in immigration law enforcement will require a financial commitment that is detrimental to the U.S. economy. Finally, while returns are an ineffective way of handling the long term problem of illegal immigration, they are inexpensive to perform and burden the U.S. far less, financially speaking, than performing removals.
Causal Loop Diagram
The CLD below has six balancing feedback loops and two reinforcing ones. The diagram explains some of the interactions put forward in this blog but there are many, such as the financial cost of entering the U.S. and the presence of other actors including drug traffickers, that still need to be accounted for. The different loops listed are:
B1: Illegal Immigration is Bad for Business: Shows that illegal immigration hurts the U.S. economy. This assertion is based on the fact that illegal immigrants, in particular those crossing the southern border, have a substantially higher rate of living in poverty or near poverty than legal immigrants (http://www.cis.org/articles/2001/mexico/poverty.html). Immigration to the U.S. increases poverty and unemployment in the U.S. while decreasing it in the immigrants country of origin.
B2: Removal Fee vs Return for Free…ish: Explains how illegal immigration can be minimized by increasing the funding that supports the enforcement of immigration law, leading to more interceptions.
B3:Short Term Budget Control Via Deportation Policy: Explains how, in a similar fashion to B2, the government, and in particular politicians pressured into action, can remove illegal immigrants by decreasing the ratio of removals to returns to stay within the assigned budget.
B4: Budget Control Via Prosecution Policy: Explains how the government can arrive at a balance with respect to the money spent on prosecuting illegal immigrants versus the cost to do so. The greater the number of prosecutions performed the more money needed.
B5: Doing Hard Time: Explains what happens when more illegal immigrants are prosecuted: illegal immigration goes down but only after funding is increased. Additionally, the cost of smuggling increases since smugglers are required to take more risks.
B6: Economic Impact of Fighting Illegal Immigration: Explains that an increase in the funding to fight illegal immigration is bad for the overall U.S. economy, without any respect to the success that additional funding has in diminishing further illegal immigration.
B7: Cost of Smuggling: Explains how a change in the cost of smuggling illegal immigrants can change the total number of illegal immigrants attempting to enter the U.S. every year.
B8: Easy In: Explains the affect that immigrants who overstay their Visas has on immigration policy.
B7: Cost of Smuggling: Explains how a change in the cost of smuggling illegal immigrants can change the total number of illegal immigrants attempting to enter the U.S. every year.
B8: Easy In: Explains the affect that immigrants who overstay their Visas has on immigration policy.
R1: Give Us Your Intelligent, Well Off, and Successful Masses: Explains the positive effect legal immigrants have on the U.S. economy, as well as the opposite effect should successful Americans leave the U.S. during harsh economic times.
R2: Keep Your Poor, Weary, and Tired Masses: Explains the negative effect felt on the foreign economy of an immigrant’s home country when successful immigrants leave those countries and immigrate to the U.S., as well as the vice versa should a faltering U.S. economy cause successful Americans to leave the U.S.
R3 Give Us More!: Explains what happens when immigration policies are successful and the number of legal immigrants allowed entry every year is allowed to increase.
The CLD below is an alternative to the one above. This CLD is easier to follow and eliminates some of the redundancy present in the first design.
R3 Give Us More!: Explains what happens when immigration policies are successful and the number of legal immigrants allowed entry every year is allowed to increase.
The CLD below is an alternative to the one above. This CLD is easier to follow and eliminates some of the redundancy present in the first design.
Brandon, this is a well described system dynamic problem. I just have a few things that I would like to point out and may be you can shade more lights on them. My first comment is about your first R2 feedback loop, when you imply that when “Economy of Immigrants Country of Origin” goes up, then the “Economic Opportunity in the US Relative to Immigrants Country of Origin” goes down or in the opposite direction, what do you exactly imply by that variable? I’m not sure if it’s only me, but I fail to see the connection between these two variables, but am sure you are going to expound on this in our next meeting. Last but not the least, is about “Legal Immigration” variable. I believe this is your lurking variable, as is seen in every CLD and in almost every feedback loop. I feel like it’s a little confusing to read it like that, may be a variable like “Effort to curb illegal Immigrants” which I believe It’s the same thing you mean when you say “Legal Immigration” would sound better. Also by changing the name, it makes it a variable whose behavior can be tracked over time. Other than that, good stuff.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment man, I appreciate you actually reading all of that, lol. I know we already discussed it in person a week ago, but I'm gonna post my reply here just in case anyone else was wondering the same things you were.
ReplyDeleteIn response to your first comment, I'm relating the value that an employable, educated worker adds to an economy versus the drain on an economy imposed by a increasing the number of unemployed workers, or workers that are employed and pay no taxes. Taken to another level, the drain on the healthcare system further supports my claim. You are a student at JMU and are forced to buy health insurance. If you had instead illegally came to the U.S. you wouldn't care to buy healthcare... you'd be happy just to have a job, any job. So, if you go to the hospital who is going to pay? Right now your insurance covers most of it (I hope, I don't know much about the student plan), but if you don't have any then the rest of us are paying for it. I concede, all I've done is try to backup my initial assertion, and it is the assertion that I think you were wondering about, not the facts underlying it. Ultimately, I argue that when people who are educated and employable leave one country, that country's economic opportunity relative to the U.S. goes down since the immigrants discussed are no longer contributing to that country's economy. On the other hand, the U.S. economy is improved by their immigration since they will most likely go immediately to work, or at the very least spend money while in this country. The result is a better U.S. economy and a worse foreign economy based solely on the immigrants decision to come to the U.S. Keep in mind, this doesn't take into the account the higher rate of crime that is also associated with illegal immigrants, a fact that only magnifies the point I'm attempting to make.
The Legal Immigration variable is simply a measure of legal immigration. It isn't an effort, it's a dashboard variable. When you increase legal immigration, then the number of people immigrating to the U.S. legally is increased, simple as that.