Illegal Immigration

Problem Narrative

The problem that I would like to analyze is illegal immigration into the United States, particularly across the U.S.'s border with Mexico.  Every year hundreds of thousands of people illegally immigrate to the United States, half of them from overstayed Visas.  There are a myriad of reasons why this problem persist despite efforts to suppress it, not the least of which are various U.S. policies in place that exasperate the problem.   


Behavior Over Time 

This dynamic problem is constantly changing with respect to the many variables that influence it.  The magnitude of illegal immigration can be measured by tracking the number of individuals caught entering the U.S. illegally every year.  This statistic can be analyzed year by year with respect to the various incentives in place that promote illegal immigration as well as the deterrents that resist it.  In the case of law enforcement, it would be meaningful to analyze any statistics that track the financial and criminal risk taken by an average illegal immigrant during a given year.  This statistic could be represented in many ways, but a few are: the percentage of illegal immigrants caught versus those that made it, the average time of an illegal immigrant caught spent in detention, the average amount paid by an illegal immigrant (based on their country of origin) to be smuggled or guided into the U.S., and the percentage of illegal immigrants, with respect to the whole, that perish when trying to enter the U.S. 


 Relevance of a Systems Perspective 

The complex nature of this problem makes it perfect for a systems analysis.  Within the several variables there are many delays, particularly between when new policy is implemented and when the effects are felt, that make feedback loops very significant.  Finally, there are multiple mental models at work that represent the mindsets of each individual group involved, including the immigrants, U.S. citizens, border patrol, politicians, and drug traffickers.


Study Objective and Questions to be Addressed

The primary purpose of this study would be to answer question: Why does illegal immigration persist across the U.S. - Mexico border and what can be done to address it.  However, when I perform my research I will need to examine the scope of the problem prior to performing this analysis.  I must first describe why the problem of illegal immigration is significant and a one that is even worth spending time to research.  I plant to do this by researching the potential long and short term fallout (social, economic, and impact on national security) from continued illegal immigration.  These projections should speak for themselves, describing both the scope of the problem and providing guidelines that aide in estimating the maximum U.S. contribution (in terms of financial and manpower assets)  that would prove beneficial in the long run.